In the wake of abundant precipitation in May that markedly reduced drought across much of the region, dryness is once again increasing in part of Western Canada.
As the map below shows, June rainfall was below normal for much of the southwestern Prairie, with some pockets only getting 40% to 60% of usual, or even less. According to the latest edition of the Canadian Agriculture Weather Prognosticator from World Weather, there is still a notable moisture deficit in a part of the southwest and “significant moisture is needed to adequately improve the long-term outlook for the drier areas.”
Although the latest weekly Alberta crop report showed crop conditions in the province’s South region still above the five- and 10-year average, surface soil moisture ratings declined to 53% good to excellent as of June 25, down 13 points on the week. Soil moisture ratings in the Central region fell even more sharply, down 20 points from the previous week to 60% good to excellent. In the province’s more northern regions, surface soil moisture was rated 77% good to excellent or better.
Likewise, cropland soil moisture in Saskatchewan’s Southwest region declined this past week, dropping to 79% adequate and 21% short as of June 24, compared to 92% adequate and just 5% short a week earlier.
What makes the drier-than-normal June weather in the southwestern Prairie even more concerning is the forecast for this month. Conditions are expected to trend warmer and drier through next week, World Weather said, with precipitation amounts slowly increasing again after that. However, the southwest may continue to get shortchanged on rainfall, it said. With temperatures heating up, southwestern Prairie dryness could get “out of control” relatively quickly, hurting crop prospects in the driest areas, the forecaster said.
On the other hand, some Prairie areas would welcome less moisture, most notably northwestern Manitoba and northeastern Saskatchewan where water is ponding in some low areas of fields and where certain crops are visibly yellowing from excess moisture stress.
