Statistics Canada just tinkered with its 2024 Canadian corn and soybean production estimates in an updated crop production report released Monday.
The federal agency pegged national corn output at 15.167 million tonnes, down only slightly from its late August estimate of 15.228 million, while soybean production was bumped up to 7.196 million tonnes from 7.149 million. Compared to last year, corn production is down 1.6%, while the soybean crop is 3.1% larger.
At 167.8 bu/acre, the average national corn yield was lowered from 168.5 bu last month, while the average soy yield increased to 46.4 bu/acre from 46.1 bu. Yields for both corn and soybeans are up from 161.8 bu and 45.9 bu/acre last year, respectively.
Corn harvested area, at 3.558 million acres, is expected down 5.2% from last year, while soybean harvested area is seen up 2% at 5.7 million.
If accurate, Canadian corn production – although down from 2023 - would still be up from 14.538 million tonnes in 2022, while this year’s soybean crop would be the largest since 2018 at 7.416 million tonnes.
Today’s production estimates are based satellite imagery and agroclimatic data, and reflect conditions as of the end of August. StatsCan’s first set of model-based estimates, released Aug. 28, reflected conditions as of the end of July. StatsCan’s final crop production estimates, to be released in December, will be based on a survey of farmers.
In the largest production province of Ontario, this year’s corn crop is estimated at 9.595 million tonnes, down from 9.675 million in August and 3.8% below a year ago. At 178.7 bu/acre, the average expected yield was trimmed from 180.1 bu last month but remains above the 2023 average of 177 bu and still a new record high.
Soybean production in Ontario is pegged at 4.314 million tonnes, steady from August and up 6.9% on the year. The average yield, at 51.4 bu/acre, is also unchanged from last month and down from 51.4 bu in 2023.
Quebec corn production is estimated at 3.63 million tonnes, up slightly from 3.587 million in August and up 8.6% from a year earlier. The average yield is seen at 163.6 bu/acre, compared to 161.6 bu in August and 148.1 bu in 2023.
Soybean production in Quebec is forecast at 1.33 million, down from 1.366 million last month but still up from 1.268 million last year. At 46 bu/acre, the average provincial soy yield is down from 47.2 bu in August and 46.9 bu a year ago.
Corn output in Manitoba is pegged at 1.669 million tonnes, little changed from 1.699 million in August as the average expected yield slipped to 136.3 bu from 138.7 bu. Last year’s Manitoba corn crop amounted to 1.785 million tonnes, with an average yield of 128.4 bu/acre.
Manitoba soybean production is estimated at 1.429 million tonnes, up from 1.345 million last month but still below the 2023 crop of 1.566 million. At 37.3 bu/acre, the average yield was revised up from 35.1 bu in August and tops last year’s 36.2 bu average.
