The USDA has made relatively minor changes to its 2024-25 US and global wheat supply-demand estimates this month.
In its monthly update Friday, the bumped its US wheat ending stocks estimate 3 million bu higher from December to 798 million, now 15% above a year earlier. Meanwhile, global wheat ending stocks were raised 900,000 tonnes to 258.82 million, down from 267.47 million in 2023-24.
The US wheat ending stocks number was almost right in line with the average pre-report trade guess of 799 million, while the global stocks number came in about 1 million tonnes higher than the average trade estimate. Wheat futures were trading mixed this afternoon, showing losses of about 2 cents to gains of around a penny.
On the supply side, the USDA raised its 2024-25 US wheat import forecast to 120 million bu, up 5 million from last month. However, that was partially offset by a 2-million bu increase in seed use to 64 million, based on the winter wheat and canola seedings report, also released by the USDA today. Exports were left unchanged from last month at 850 million bu, although there offsetting class-by-class changes, the USDA said.
Internationally, the USDA left is 2024-25 Russia wheat production estimate steady from last month at 81.5 million but cut the country’s expected exports by 1 million tonnes to 46 million, down sharply from last year’s record of 55.5 million.
Ukraine’s exports were also dropped from last month, down 500,000 tonnes to an estimated 16 million.
The US season-average farm price for wheat is down a nickel this month to $5.55/bu, based on prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
