The International Grains Council (IGC) has raised its estimate for 2025-26 world grains production to a new record high, but ending stocks are expected to remain stuck at a 12-year low.
In its monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday, the IGC pegged world total grains production (wheat and coarse grains) at 2.373 billion tonnes, up 5 million from the March estimate and now 70 million above the previous year’s output of 2.303 billion. But with the supply gain “broadly matched by increases in consumption,” global ending stocks are now forecast at 580 million tonnes. That is up 2 million from last month but just on par with a year earlier and the lowest since 2013-14.
At 424 million tonnes, world grains trade for 2025-26 is unchanged from last month but up from 418 the previous year. Still, trade volumes are seen smaller than average amid “muted Chinese buying interest,” the IGC said.
The bulk of this month’s increase in total grains production is due to an expected larger world corn crop. The crop is now projected at 1.274 million tonnes, up from 5 million from the March estimate and 4.6% above 2024-25. On the other hand, estimated global wheat production was trimmed 1 million tonnes from last month to 806 million, still up from 798 million a year earlier.
At 281 million tonnes, world corn ending stocks for 2025-26 are up 1 million from March and 5 million above a year earlier. Global wheat ending stocks are seen by the IGC at 260 million tonnes, compared to 259 million last month and 268 million in 2024-25.
Meanwhile, world soybean production for 2025-26 was raised 1 million tonnes from last month to 428 million, up from 417 million a year earlier. Global soybean ending stocks, at 83 million tonnes, were unchanged from last month but up 2 million from 2024-25.
