The case for more corn and less soybean acres in the spring appears to be growing.
As of Monday morning, the new-crop November soybean contract was trading around $10.39, with December 2025 corn at about $4.55. That translates into a soybean-corn price ratio of 2.28.
Given that a ratio below 2.5 typically indicates that more acreage will be devoted to corn, market dynamics are further incentivizing corn over soybeans. In fact, as it stands right now, the ratio is making one of the strongest cases for corn of the past 10 years. The ratio back in early November stood at 2.35.
Chicago corn futures last week touched a 14-month high, boosted by dryness concerns in Argentina and tighter U.S. stocks. However, soybeans have moved higher as well, climbing to near six-month highs last week.
Meanwhile, the main North American planting season is still months away and the soybean-corn ratio typically swings more dramatically as the weather warms and farmers get closer to taking to the fields.
Input costs also factor heavily into farmer planting decisions, and while those costs have eased, they remain prohibitive – a factor that can undermine an input-heavy crop like corn. Rotational considerations loom large as well, often serving to limit any stampedes into one crop or the other.
USDA officials will provide some early insight into new-crop US corn and soybean acreage at the 2025 Agricultural Outlook Forum in late February, with the government’s much anticipated prospective plantings report to be released March 31.
Released earlier this month, Agriculture Canada’s first monthly supply-demand estimates for the upcoming 2025-26 marketing year pegged national corn planted area at 3.75 million acres, up 3% from the previous year and potentially the second highest on record after 2023. On the other hand, soybean area is seen falling almost 7% year-over-year to 5.31 million, the lowest since 2022 at 5.27 million.
