US farmer concern about American trade policy has spiked amid souring expectations for agricultural exports.
According to the latest Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer - which is based on a monthly survey of 400 producers across the US – farmer concern about trade policy has ‘skyrocketed’ since the November presidential election, with 43% of respondents, on average, now citing it as the most important policy or program affecting their farm. Prior to the election, farmers generally expressed more concerned about interest rate policy than trade policy
Meanwhile, the March edition of the ag economy barometer also showed that 30% of respondents expect to see a decline in ag exports over the next five years, nearly matching the percentage of farmers (33%) who said they believe exports will rise.
Historically, exports have been an important source of demand for US agricultural production, and strong exports have often been associated with strong farm incomes. In 2019 and 2020, producers were optimistic that exports would grow over the upcoming five years, but that optimism began to erode in 2021 and has continued to fall since that time.
The policies of US President Donald Trump have more recently led to considerable uncertainty and anxiety for US farmers, as he uses tariffs to try and level what he sees as an unfair playing field for American trade.
In response to higher US tariffs on imports of Chinese goods, Beijing earlier this month announced retaliatory tariffs, including a 15% levy on American products like chicken, wheat and corn, as well as 10% on products like soybeans, pork, beef and fruit. Trump has also taken trade action against Canada, with further measures expected to be imposed against it and other countries beginning April 2.
During his first administration, Trump’s tariffs led to about $23 billion in US government payments to farmers to offset China’s retaliatory duties on soybean, corn, wheat and other American imports beginning in 2018.
The ag economy barometer fell to a reading of 140 points in March, down from 152 a month earlier.
