Amid possible trade disruptions, Agriculture Canada has doubled its 2025-26 canola ending stocks forecast and slashed its price outlook in updated monthly supply-demand estimates released Friday.
Ag Canada now sees new-crop canola ending stocks at 2 million tonnes, up 1 million from its February estimate. Meanwhile, the government also lowered its 2025-26 average price expectation for canola by $40 to $610/tonne.
Ag Canada made no changes to its old-crop canola supply-demand estimates from February, with projected ending stocks holding at 1.3 million, down sharply from 2.748 million in 2023-24. However, the old-crop price estimate was lowered $25 from last month to $645/tonne.
On the new-crop canola demand side, Ag Canada raised its export forecast by 500,000 tonnes from last month to 6 million (versus 7.5 million for the current year), while the new-crop crush estimate was dropped 1 million tonnes to 11 million, 500,000 below the 2024-25 forecast.
In its accompanying commentary, Ag Canada said its March supply-demand estimates were based on information and trade policies in effect as of March 14. But while China’s 100% tariffs on imports of Canadian canola oil and meal did not officially take effect until March 20 – and possible US tariffs have been delayed until April – Ag Canada said the downward revision in the crush estimate reflects “heightened policy uncertainty over proposed tariffs and renewable energy mandates.”
“The reduced forecast is tentative and may decline further if proposed tariffs and trade disturbances materialize. Conversely, the crush forecast may revert to last month’s estimates if policies stabilize, and plants operate at full capacity,” it said.
This month’s supply-demand estimates also reflect Statistics Canada’s March 12 planting intentions report. That report pegged new-crop canola planted area at 21.646 million acres, down 1.7% on the year and above Ag Canada’s February projection of 21 million.
With the larger seeded area, Ag Canada raised its 2025 production estimate by 500,000 tonnes from last month to 18 million, just slightly above the 2024 crop of 17.845 million. The total estimated new-crop canola supply was pushed an identical 500,000 tonnes higher from last month to 19.4 million, but still down from 20.742 million in 2024-25.
But Ag Canada also hedged its acreage bets, warning that planted area may be subject to downward revisions in coming months with farmers facing shrinking margins as input costs remain elevated and canola futures prices fall.
Normal to lower new-crop canola yields are assumed for now, but Ag Canada said further winter moisture and a slow spring melt is needed to replenish dry conditions in the major growing regions.
