The 2024 US corn yield is still estimated at a new record high, but after last week’s sharp reduction it probably doesn’t feel like it anymore.
In a move that surprised traders and analysts, the USDA lowered its corn yield estimate to 179.3 bu/acre in its monthly supply-demand update Friday. That is a hefty 3.8 bu drop from its previous estimate in November, although still 2 bu higher than 2023. (The USDA does not update its yield estimates in December).
Going into the report, the average trade guess was for just a 0.4 bu reduction in the corn yield, so this month’s cut took some serious shine off an otherwise bumper crop.
So, where was all that yield lost? A look at the data reveals that crops in some of the biggest production states just didn’t quite measure up to earlier expectations.
In Illinois, for example, where growing conditions were among the best in the entire country, the average 2024 yield is now seen at 217 bu/acre. Yes, that is still an impressive 11 bu/acre improvement on the state’s 2023 average but represents a 1 bu reduction from the November estimate and is now 5 bu below the October forecast.
In the No. 1 production state of Iowa, Friday’s report lowered the average yield to 211 bu/acre, a drop of 2 bu from November and 3 bu below October. However, that remains up 10 bu from the previous year.
The average Indiana corn yield was lowered a major 11 bu from November to 198 bu/acre, now 5 bu below the state’s 2023 average.
At 174 bu/acre, the average estimated Minnesota yield was lowered 9 bu from November and now sits well below 185 bu in 2023. Minnesota had a difficult growing season in 2024, one included significant flooding. In some parts of the state, more than a foot of rain fell in the month of June alone.
In Nebraska, the average yield is estimated at 188 bu/acre, down 6 bu from November although still 6 bu higher than a year earlier. Wisconsin’s average corn yield was lowered 7 bu from November to 174 bu/acre, 2 bu below 2023. The average Kansas yield fell 9 bu to 129 bu/acre, still 10 bu above a year earlier.
Around the Great Lakes, the Michigan and Ohio yields went in different directions. Michigan’s corn yield was actually revised up from November, rising 2 bu 181 bu/acre and easily topping the previous year’s 168 bu. On the other hand, the Ohio yield was cut 8 bu to 177 bu/acre, well below 198 bu in 2023 amid one of the driest growing seasons in memory for the state.
