US farmer sentiment remained strong in January, although concern about possible trade wars lingers.
Released Tuesday, the latest Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer showed a reading of 141 points for the month of January, up 5 points from a month earlier.
Based on a monthly survey of 400 producers across the country, the barometer provides a glimpse of how American farmers are feeling about their farm operations and the challenges they face.
At least some of the January improvement in the barometer was linked to rising farm commodity prices. For example, eastern Corn Belt prices for near-term delivery of corn and soybeans rose 9% and 5%, respectively, from early December to mid-January.
In general, US producers expect 2025 to a better year for their farms compared to 2024 when American net farm income dropped an estimated $6 billion or 4.1% from 2023.
On the other hand, the barometer showed producer concern about trade is running high.
When asked in January which policy or program will be most important to their farm in the next five years, 42% of respondents chose “trade policy,” which was more than double the percentage who chose “crop insurance program.”
“Unsurprisingly, there is significant concern among US farmers that a trade war could break out that negatively impacts U.S. ag exports, although attitudes did appear to shift from December to January,” said the barometer commentary.
Over the last three months, the percentage of US producers who indicated they think a trade war is either “likely” or “very likely” has ranged from a high of 48% in December to the January low of 40%. Meanwhile, the percentage of producers who think a trade war is either “unlikely” or “very unlikely” rose to 29% in January, up from 21% in December.
US tariffs that were supposed to be levied on imports from Canada and Mexico on Tuesday have now been delayed until March. However, an American tariff of 10% against products from China is now in effect, with China also announcing retaliatory measures. So far, China has not subjected US soybeans or other ag commodities to tariffs.
