Smaller-than-expected Canadian barley and oat crops could be on tap this year.
Citing the impact of hot, dry conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan this summer, Agriculture Canada lowered its 2024 oat and barley production estimates from last month in updated supply-demand estimates released Tuesday.
Barley output is now seen at 7.878 million tonnes, down from the July forecast of 8.508 million, with the average expected yield dropping to 62.3 bu/acre from 67.3 bu. If accurate, this year’s barley crop would be 11% below last year’s crop of 8.896 million and 16% below average.
The reduction in the oat production forecast was less severe, down to 3.191 million tonnes from 3.332 million in July, as the average expected yield fell to 86.6 bu/acre from 90.5 bu. With this month’s reduction, oat production would be up 21% from last year but still 18% lower than average.
With a smaller crop, Ag Canada lowered its 2024-25 barley export forecast by 200,000 tonnes from July to 2.75 million, with expected domestic use down about 300,000 tonnes to 5.308 million. At an estimated 500,000 tonnes, 2024-25 barley stocks are down 100,000 from last month and below 650,000 in 2023-24.
For oats, Ag Canada trimmed the 2024-25 export forecast by 50,000 tonnes from last month to 2.3 million. Expected domestic use was also lowered slightly from last month but ending stocks were still dropped 25,000 tonnes to 325,000 tonnes – down just modestly from 350,000 in 2023-24.
Projected 2024-25 barley and oat prices were left steady from last month at $290 and $310/tonne, respectively.
