Further soybean price pressure could lie dead ahead as South American producers take to the fields to plant the 2024-25 crop.
Argentina may see its largest soybean acreage expansion in over a decade, while Brazil’s plantings are also expected to grow, albeit at their slowest pace in 10 years, said a farmdoc daily article on Friday.
“This surge in supply, driven by potential record production in both countries, could further depress international soybean prices in the coming months,” said the article, co-authored by University of Illinois’ Nick Paulson, associate head of Ag and Consumer Economics; Gary Schnitkey, Soy Industry Chair in Agricultural Strategy and Extension farm management specialist; and Joana Colussi, postdoctoral research associate.
Brazilian soybean acreage is projected to grow by 2.8%, reaching 117 million acres, according to the first estimates for the 2024-25 crop season from the National Supply Company (Conab), the country’s food supply and statistics agency. The article attributed the relatively modest increase in soybean planted area to lower profit margins for farmers, although production could still reach a new record high of 6.101 billion bu (166 million tonnes), up 13% on the year, with favourable weather.
Brazilian farmers began planting their 2024-25 soybean crop in the western states around mid-September. After an extended period of very dry conditions, recent rains have allowed farmers to progress with soybean planting. As of Oct. 20, 18% of the expected crop had been planted, 11 points behind the same period last year, according to Conab.
Meanwhile, Argentina’s soybean planted area is expected to grow by 7% in the 2024-25 crop season, reaching 44 million acres, according to initial estimates from the Secretariat of Agriculture. This marks the largest expansion in soybean planting since the 2015-16 season. The 2024-25 Argentine soybean crop is projected to reach 1.911 billion bu (52 million tonnes), a slight increase over the previous harvest
Argentine farmers are expected to allocate more land to soybeans, reducing the area planted with corn by approximately 4 million acres after the previous harvest was severely impacted by corn stunt disease, the farmdoc daily article said.
Along with other smaller producers, including Paraguay, total 2024-25 South America soybean production is projected at 8.745 million bu (238 million tonnes), according to the USDA, which will help push global production to a record 15.736 billion bu (428.3 million tonnes). The USDA projects that global soybean stocks will hit an all-time high in 2024-25, rising by nearly 808 million bu, or almost 20%, compared to the previous year.
