Agriculture Canada has bumped its 2024-24 ending stocks estimates higher for both peas and lentils – with average expected prices seeing a sharp decline.
Updated supply-demand estimates released Wednesday pegged dry pea ending stocks at 500,000 tonnes, up 60,000 from the August forecast and above the revised 2023-24 ending stocks level of 348,000. Meanwhile, lentil stocks were raised 25,000 tonnes from last month to 475,000, up from 179,000 the previous year and potentially the highest since stocks hit 856,000 tonnes in 2018-19.
Most of this month’s upward revision in ending stocks was due to Statistics Canada’s Sept. 9 grain stocks report, which pegged 2023-24 pea and lentil stocks as of July 31 (ending stocks for the 2023-24 crop year) above Ag Canada’s August estimates. In the case of lentils, for example, July 31 stocks were reported by StatsCan at 179,000 tonnes, versus Ag Canada’s projection of just 50,000.
The September supply-demand estimates also reflect StatsCan’s Sept. 16 crop production report, which raised this year’s expected lentil crop slightly above the August estimate, while the dry pea crop was lowered slightly.
Ag Canada offset at least some of the heavier beginning stocks and higher 2024-25 total supply for lentils by raising its export forecast. Lentil shipments are now seen at 2.1 million tonnes, up 200,000 from August and well above 1,648 million a year earlier.
On the other hand, the dry pea export forecast was trimmed 100,000 from last month to 2.4 million tonnes, little changed from 2.454 million in 2023-24.
Ag Canada slashed its price expectations for both crops from last month, with the 2024-25 average pea price now seen at $375/tonne, down from $430 in August and the year-earlier average of $460. The average expected lentil price was dropped $50 from last month to $780, also down from the 2023-24 average of $1,000.
