Agriculture Canada has cut its 2024 all wheat production estimate from last month amid lower yield expectations.
Monthly supply-demand estimates released Tuesday pegged this year’s national all wheat output at 34.357 million tonnes, down about 1 million from the government’s July forecast although still 7.5% above the 2023 crop of 31.954 million.
Projected durum production was trimmed about 260,000 tonnes from July to 6.039 million tonnes, with the average expected yield falling to 35.7 bu/acre from 37.2 bu. “Over the last month, the Prairies experienced above-average heat and little moisture, which have dampened yield prospects,” Ag Canada said.
Regardless of this month’s downgrade, the 2024 Canadian durum crop is still forecast up 49% compared to the previous year, 23% above average, and the fifth largest on record if realized.
The reduction in this year’s Canadian durum production estimate follows on the heels of more sizable cut in the US forecast given similarly dry conditions in parts of the northern Plains. In its August supply-demand update, the USDA estimated the 2024 American durum crop at 76.9 million bu (2.1 million tonnes), a major 14% decline from last month but still up 30% on the year. The bulk of the monthly decline in the US crop estimate was due to a lower average yield, which is now estimated at 38.1 bu/acre - down 4.6 bu from last month but still 1.1 bu above 2023.
Canadian wheat (excl durum) output is now seen at 28.319 million tonnes, versus the July estimate of 29.128 million (and the 2023 crop of 27.909 million), with the average forecast yield down to 52 bu/acre from 53.5 bu.
Despite the smaller crop, Ag Canada is forecasting 2024-25 durum ending stocks at 800,000 tonnes, unchanged from July and way up from the slightly downwardly revised 2023-24 ending stocks estimate of 325,000. The 2024-25 season average durum price is pegged at $325/tonne, down $25 from last month.
Wheat (excl durum) ending stocks are now estimated at 2 million tonnes, down 450,000 from July and on par with this month’s 2023-24 ending stocks estimate, which was cut 350,000 tonnes due to a higher export forecast. The 2024-25 wheat (excl durum) price forecast is steady from last month at $330.
