US numbers were unchanged but a still-heavy 2024-25 global supply-demand outlook was pared down in updated USDA estimates released Tuesday.
American soybean ending stocks for 2024-25 were held steady from February at 380 million, up from 342 million a year earlier and near the average pre-report trade guess of 379 million bu.
Meanwhile, the USDA lowered its 2024-25 global soybean ending stocks estimate by nearly 3 million tonnes from last month to 121.4 million. That is well below the average trade guess of 124.6 million but remains comfortably above the 2023-24 ending stocks level of 112.55 million.
Soybean futures were trading just slightly higher today, up 1-2 cents/bu.
Estimated global soybean production for 2024-25 was little changed this month, with projected output in Brazil and Argentina steady from last month at 169 million and 49 million tonnes, respectively. Exports for the two countries were unchanged as well, at 105.5 million for Brazil and 4.5 million for Argentina.
On the demand side, the USDA raised its global soybean crush estimate for 2024/25 by 2.9 million tonnes to 352.8 million, primarily due to China. The soybean crush for China was bumped 2 million tonnes higher from last month to 105 million, “based on the pace to date,” the USDA said.
China’s soybean imports were left unchanged from February at 109 million tonnes, down from 112 million in 2023-24.
Today’s report reflects American tariffs on China, and China’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods, which include a 10% levy on soybeans. It does not reflect any American trade action against Canadian and Mexico goods covered under the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement – which includes most ag products - as those planned 25% tariffs have been delayed until April. Likewise, US reciprocal tariffs are not scheduled to begin until early April.
Canada’s March 4 retaliatory tariffs against $30 billion in US goods remain in place, and are accounted for in the report, although there appears to be little to no impact on actual ag supply-demand dynamics.
The USDA trimmed its season-average US soybean price forecast by 15 cents from last month to $9.95, well down from $12.40 in 2023-24.
