The USDA has lowered its 2024-25 US wheat ending stocks estimates from last month, but raised its global outlook
In updated monthly supply-demand estimates Friday, the USDA pegged US wheat ending stocks at 812 million bu, down 16 million from its September projection but still up 17% on the year. Meanwhile, global ending stocks were bumped 500,000 tonnes higher to 257.72 million - still the lowest since 2015-16.
The US wheat ending stocks estimate came in below the average trade guess of 820 million bu, while global stocks topped pre-report expectations of 255.9 million tonnes. Wheat futures were trading 4-5 cents/bu lower this afternoon.
On the US side, 2024-25 beginning stocks were reduced to 696 million bu from 702 million bu last month, based on the Sept. 30 grain stocks report. The USDA also trimmed the size of this year’s American all wheat crop by 11 million bu to 1.971 billion to reflect the small grains summary, also released Sept. 30. Those changes were partially blunted by a 10-million bu increase in expected imports to 115 million, “based on a strong pace of imports for the first three months of the marketing year.”
On the demand side, the USDA increased projected domestic wheat use by 10 million bu to 120 million on higher feed and residual use.
Globally, the USDA lowered projected 2024-25 Russia wheat production by 1 million tonnes from last month to 82 million, down from 91.5 million in 2023-24 amid dryness and frost. The EU crop was also cut 1 million tonnes, falling to 123 million versus 134.87 million a year earlier. On the other hand, the Ukraine crop was increased to 22.9 million tonnes from 22.3 million in September, but still below the previous year’s 23 million.
Despite various weather woes, projected 2024-25 Australia and Argentina wheat production was left steady from September at 32 million and 18 million tonnes, respectively, compared to 25.96 million and 15.85 million a year ago.
The US season average farm price for wheat is unchanged this month at $5.70/bu, down from $6.96 in 2023-24.
