US soybean ending stocks for 2024-25 are unchanged this month, as Friday’s USDA supply-demand update contained just incremental changes.
With a 0.1 bu/acre reduction in the average expected soybean yield from last month to 53.1 bu/acre, the USDA lowered this year’s US soybean crop by 4 million bu from September to 4.582 billion, still up 10% from last year and a new record high.
The drop in the production estimate was slightly offset by a 2-million bu increase in beginning stocks to 342 million, as per the Sept. 30 grain stocks report, while projected residual use was lowered by 2 million bu to 36 million.
The end result was no change in the 2024-25 ending stocks estimate of 550 million, well up from 342 million in 2023-24.
The USDA’s production and yield estimates were close to the average pre-report trade guesses of 4.581 billion bu and 53.2 bu/acre, while traders and analysts were looking for a small reduction in ending stocks from last month to 546 million. Soybean futures were trading 4-5 cents/bu lower following the report’s release at the noon hour ET.
Despite recent dryness that has slowed planting and buoyed prices, expected 2024-25 Brazil soybean production was left unchanged from September at 169 million tonnes, up from 153 million a year earlier. Projected Argentina output was steady from last month at 51 million tonnes, versus 48.1 million in 2023-24.
Estimated China soybean imports, at 109 million tonnes, were unchanged from September and down from 112 million last year.
World soybean ending stocks were up just slightly from September, rising to 134.65 million tonnes from 134.58 million. Ending stocks a year earlier amounted to 112.37 million.
At $10.80/bu, the USDA’s 2024-25 season average price estimate is steady from last month but down from $12.40 in 2023-24. The average expected soybean oil and soybean meal prices, at 42 cents/lb and $320/short ton, were also steady from September but down from 47.28 cents and $384.11 in 2023-24.
