Agriculture Canada has trimmed its new-crop canola ending stocks forecast in the wake of a smaller-than-expected planted area estimate.
Updated monthly supply-demand estimates from the government on Tuesday pegged 2024-25 canola ending stocks at 1.65 million tonnes, down 300,000 from the February projection and below the 2023-24 forecast of 2 million, which remains unchanged from last month. If accurate, new-crop canola ending stocks would again fall below the five-year average of 2.5 million tonnes.
The March supply-demand estimates reflect the Statistics Canada acreage report released earlier this month which reported 2024 Canadian canola intentions at 21.4 million acres, below Ag Canada’s forecast made in January of 21.7 million. Although Ag Canada did revise its new-crop canola yield estimate slightly higher from last month, the lower planted area estimate trimmed the government canola production forecast to 18.1 million tonnes from 18.365 million in February and below 18.328 million last year.
With projected 2024-25 exports and crush holding steady from last month at 7.7 million and 10.5 million tonnes – and other demand estimates little changed – the drop in production went straight to the bottom line and tightened the ending stocks estimate.
Ag Canada did lower its average canola price forecast, dropping it $20 from last month to $625/tonne, versus $685 for the current year.
In other supply-demand changes this month, Ag Canada raised its 2024-25 all wheat ending stocks projection by 200,000 tonnes from February to 4.4 million tonnes – up from about 3.5 million the previous two years. The increase was also due to a higher planted area estimate from StatsCan, which boosted expected all wheat production to 34.59 million tonnes from 33.92 million last month.
Some of the additional all wheat production was offset by a larger export forecast, which was revised up 250,000 tonnes from last month to 24.6 million. Forecasted domestic use was also raised about 200,000 tonnes from last month to 9.26 million.
At 750,000 tonnes, projected durum ending stocks were raised 50,000 tonnes from last month, well up from 450,000 for the current year.
Durum production for 2024-25 is now seen by Ag Canada at 5.65 million tonnes, a nearly 40% increase over the prior year as planted area is estimated by StatsCan to rise about 5% and yields return to normal after last year’s Prairie dryness.
With production revised up to 9.49 million tonnes from 9.28 million last month, 2024-25 barley ending stocks are now pegged at 1.3 million tonnes, compared to 1.05 million in February and 1 million for 2023-24.
Expected oat ending stocks were lowered 150,000 tonnes from last month to 400,000, on par with the forecast for the current year, as production was cut about 200,000 tonnes to just over 3.5 million.
