The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter outlook contains more grim news for the already parched US southern Plains winter wheat crop.
Released Thursday, the outlook said the La Nina conditions expected to develop later this fall are likely to lead to a more northerly storm track during the winter months, leaving the southern tier of the country warmer and drier. As a result, drought conditions are forecast to “persist and worsen” across the central and southern Plains.
The winter outlook - which covers the period from December 2024 through February 2025 – also favours warmer-than-normal temperatures for the southern part of the country (see maps below).
On the other hand, NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for the entire northern tier of the U.S., particularly in the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes region, along with northern and western Alaska. To that end, drought conditions are expected to improve or end in the Ohio River Valley, the Great Lakes region and portions of the northwestern U.S., including eastern Washington and Oregon and northern and central Idaho.
Much-needed rain is in the forecast for the southern Plains this weekend, with the greatest amounts expected to fall in southeastern Colorado and a few far western Texas Panhandle locations. Topsoil moisture may improve in other parts of the region as well, although likely rainfall amounts of less than 1 inch mean any gains will be modest.
More than half of the US winter wheat production area (52%) was being impacted by some form of drought as of Tuesday, up from 47% a week earlier and 44% two weeks earlier. Almost two-third of the top winter wheat production state of Kansas was being impacted by drought as of Tuesday, along with just over half of Oklahoma.
