A dry fall has resulted in much of Saskatchewan going into winter with drier than normal soil conditions, lessening the potential for an above average spring runoff, according to the province’s Conditions at Freeze-up Report.
Released on Friday, the report summarizes conditions during the late fall/early winter period, providing an early indication of those areas that are more vulnerable to potentially above or below normal runoff during the spring period.
The report said the only exception to the overall drier-than-normal conditions are parts of the province’s southwest and northeast, where soil moisture conditions are near normal due to heavy early September precipitation. On the other hand, soil moisture conditions are driest in the northwest and southcentral regions of the grain belt.
Despite the generally low snowmelt runoff in spring 2024, May and June rains resulted in most large water supply reservoirs being near or at normal levels throughout the year. The months of July and August were generally dry across the province, and, following a heavy rain event early in September, the remainder of the fall was generally drier than normal across the province as well.
With the dry two months leading up to freeze up, most of central, northern and southeastern Saskatchewan went into freeze-up with drier than normal soil moisture conditions, albeit still better than a year ago.
Given that many low-lying areas across the province are holding less water than normal, the report warned there is the possibility of surface water supply issues developing or worsening if winter snowfall is below average.
The highest areas of drought risk for 2025 are concentrated in the southern, east-central, and far northern regions of the province (see map below). In areas where the risk is high or extreme, even a normal snowpack may not be sufficient to prevent water shortages in 2025, the report said.
Current long-range forecasts and climate indices suggest near normal precipitation and below normal temperatures through the winter months over much of the province.
Meanwhile, depending on the weather going forward, the jury remains out on the impact of two snowstorms which occurred in mid-November and brought 10 to 80 cm of snow to Saskatchewan, with east central regions receiving the most snow.
