The old- and new-crop outlook for peas has gotten heavier from last month, while the lentil supply-demand balance has tightened.
Updated supply-demand estimates released by Agriculture Canada on Tuesday raised the 2023-24 dry ending stocks estimate to 225,000 tonnes from 175,000 in April, while projected new-crop stocks were bumped up to 240,000 from 190,000.
Meanwhile, lentil ending stocks for 2023-24 were cut in half from last month to just 50,000 tonnes - potentially the lowest since 40,000 tonnes in 2009-10. Lentil stocks for 2024-25 are now projected at 190,000 tonnes, down 50,000 from the April estimate.
The upward revision in the 2023-24 dry pea ending stocks estimate was due to a downgrade in expected domestic use, dropping to 461,000 tonnes from 511,000 in April.
With no other supply-demand changes, the heavier old-crop carryover went to straight to the bottom line of the 2024-25 balance sheet, increasing ending stocks an identical 50,000 tonnes.
For lentils, the cut in the 2023-24 ending stocks estimate was due to heavier domestic use, which was revised up to 263,000 tonnes this month from 213,000 in April.
The smaller old-crop carryover resulted in the reduction in the 2024-25 lentil ending stocks estimate.
Ag Canada’s May supply-demand update reflects Statistics Canada’s May 7 grain stocks report, which showed stockpiles of Canadian grain as of March 31.
