Corn, wheat, and soybean futures all fell on Thursday, with corn and wheat seeing the steepest losses.
Corn was pressured by early 2025-26 supply-demand estimates released this morning at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. The estimates, from the office of the USDA’s chief economist, put US corn planted area, production and ending stocks all above trade expectations. The first survey-based estimate of corn planted area will not be released until the end of March. US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and a disappointing weekly export sales report were bearish factors as well. The export sales report showed bookings of US corn for the week ended Feb. 20 at just 794,694 tonnes, a seven-week low. May corn dropped 12 ½ cents to $4.81 and December lost 5 ¼ cents to $4.61 ¾.
For wheat, the numbers released at the Outlook Forum were relatively close to expectations, with 2025-26 ending stocks pegged at 826 million, versus 794 million for the current marketing year. If accurate, it would mark the fourth straight year that US all wheat ending stocks have increased. Weekly export sales of 269,008 tonnes also came in below the low end of pre-report trade guesses. May Chicago wheat dropped 17 ¼ cents to $5.62 ½, May Kansas City lost 13 ¼ cents to $5.85 ¼, and May Minneapolis was 13 cents lower at $6.04 ¾.
The Outlook Forum numbers for soybeans were relatively supportive, with expected planted area of 84 million acres coming in below expectations. Projected 2025-26 US soy ending stocks of 320 million bu were also below of trade guesses and down from the current year forecast of 380 million. However, soybeans fell with the hard breaks in corn and wheat. Export sales of 410,878 tonnes fell in the middle of the range of trade guesses. May beans slipped 4 cents to $10.37 ¼, and November dropped 3 ¾ cents at $10.41 ¾.
