Canadian farmers are projected to harvest the largest canola crop in five years in 2024, adding to upwardly revised production estimates of the past two years.
Statistics Canada’s model-based crop production estimates released Wednesday pegged expected national canola output for this year at 19.501 million tonnes. If accurate, that would be up 1.6% from the 2023 canola crop, which was revised up to 19.191 million tonnes, about 860,000 higher than the government’s previous estimate of 18.328 million. It would also be the largest canola crop since 2019 at 19.912 million tonnes.
The 2022 national canola crop was bumped higher as well, up to 18.849 million tonnes from the previous estimate of 18.695 million.
Today’s 2024 canola production estimate easily topped Agriculture Canada’s August supply-demand projection of 18.628 million tonnes, but fell comfortably within a wide range of pre-report trade guesses that ranged from 17.8 million to 20.5 million.
With harvested area down from a year earlier at 21.807 million acres – versus 21.885 million in 2023 – the entire increase in 2024 production is due to a higher average yield, which StatsCan forecast at 39.4 bu/acre. That would be up 1.8% from the 2023 average of 38.7 bu and mark the highest since 2020 at 41.8 bu.
“Increased production for almost all crops is expected to be driven by higher yields because of overall better growing conditions in Western Canada as of the end of July, compared with a year earlier,” StatsCan said. “However, a lack of moisture and high temperatures in some parts of the Prairies continued to be a cause for concern.”
Today’s production estimates are based satellite imagery and agroclimatic data, and reflect conditions as of the end of July. StatsCan’s next model-based estimates, to be released Sept. 16, will reflect conditions as of the end of August.
Saskatchewan is expected to produce 2.9% more canola in 2024 than in 2023, at 10.628 million tonnes. Yields are projected to increase by 5.4% to 39 bu/acre, while harvested area is expected to decline by 2.3% to 12.02 million acres.
Canola production in Alberta is forecast to increase by 2.4% to 5.698 million tonnes. The increase is due to anticipated higher yields – up to 39.9 bu/acre from 39.1 bu in 2023 - while harvested area is projected to remain unchanged at 6.29 million acres.
In Manitoba, yields are expected to decrease by 4 bu or 9% to 40.3 bu/acre, while harvested area is anticipated to rise 5.7% to 3.29 million acres, resulting in a 3.8% production decrease to 3.010 million tonnes.
