Agriculture Canada has bumped its 2024-25 canola ending stocks estimate only modestly higher from last month, despite a bigger 2024 crop and much heavier beginning stocks.
Updated monthly supply-demand estimates released Wednesday pegged 2024-25 canola ending stocks at 2.5 million tonnes, up from the August estimate of 2.23 million and above the five-year average of 2.33 million.
The latest supply-demand estimates reflect Statistics Canada’s Sept. 16 crop production report, which raised the size of this year’s Canadian canola crop to 18.981 million tonnes from the federal agency’s August projection of 18.628 million. Today’s report also reflects StatsCan’s Sept. 9 grain stocks report, which showed total national canola stockpiles as of July 31 (ending stocks for the now-concluded 2023-24 crop year) at a hefty 3.092 million tonnes, versus Ag Canada’s August projection of just 2.4 million.
Combined with the larger crop, the heavier beginning stocks push the estimated 2024-25 total canola supply to 22.172 million tonnes, up about 1 million from last month and above the 2023-24 total supply of 21.315 million.
The bulk of this month’s larger 2024-25 supply was offset by a 500,000-tonne increase in the crush estimate to 11.5 million tonnes, up from the previous year’s 11.033 million. Feed, waste, and dockage was also bumped higher, up to 622,000 tonnes from 347,000 in August.
The 2024-25 export forecast was held steady from last month at 7.5 million tonnes with the impact of China’s announced anti-dumping investigation still unknown, Ag Canada said.
Ag Canada noted its crush estimate for the current marketing year remains open to revision and will depend on the speed at which crush plants now under construction across Western Canada become operational.
Amid increasing North American demand for renewable diesel, canola crush capacity in Canada is set to grow from the current approximately 11.2 million tonnes annually to just over 17 million over the next five years.
At $635/tonne, the average expected canola price for 2024-25 was revised $5 higher from last month but remains well down from $715 in 2023-24.
