Agriculture Canada is projecting new-crop canola ending stocks to tighten further amid a decline in production.
In its first 2025-26 supply-demand estimates on Monday, Ag Canada pegged canola ending stocks at just 950,000, down from the 2024-25 forecast of 1.25 million – unchanged from last month. If accurate, ending stocks would fall well below the five-year average of 1.82 million tonnes and potentially to the lowest since 2012-13 at 588,000.
To get there, Ag Canada estimated 2025 canola planted area at 21 million acres, down about 1 million or 4.5% from the previous year due to declining prices, steady input costs, low late fall soil moisture. An expected slight strengthening of wheat prices is expected to steal some acres away from canola as well.
With an expected improvement over last year’s average yield of 36 bu/acre, production is projected at 17.5 million tonnes, about 2% below the 2024 crop of 17.845 million and the second straight year of decline. The carryin of 1.25 million tonnes, along with steady imports of 100,000, puts the total new-crop supply at an estimated 18.85 million, versus 20.692 million a year earlier.
On the demand side, Ag Canada sees 2025-26 exports at just 5.5 million tonnes, down 2 million on the year due to “tight domestic supplies.” In contrast, the domestic crush is forecast to rise 500,000 tonnes to 12 million.
Regardless of a tighter supply-demand balance, Ag Canada is forecasting weaker canola prices in 2025-26 at $615/tonne (No.1 track Vancouver). That would be down $20 from the forecasted 2024-25 level and the lowest average price since 2019-20.
